Iran War in the Rearview Mirror: How Will the Oil Market Behave in the Medium and Long Term?

Now that the Iran deal is completely signed and the Strait of Hormuz is fully open, the only thing remaining is for the ink to dry. How should oil traders position themselves?

Are we heading toward sub-$40 oil again? An oil price collapse isn't necessarily good either, although governments refilling their strategic petroleum reserves could provide some support.

On top of that, Iran is expected to receive roughly $325 billion in investment, which could eventually lead to a significant increase in oil and gas supply. Meanwhile, the UAE has left OPEC+, allowing it to ramp up production as aggressively as it wants.

With geopolitical risk premiums disappearing, additional Iranian supply potentially coming to market, and the UAE increasing production, what is the bullish case for oil over the next few years?