Spread across two accounts, I have:
301 40/60 call spreads
385 50/70 call spreads
251 20/10 Bear put spreads
25 naked 50 calls.
All in IBIT, all for Dec 2028
Planning to re-evaluate in a year. If BTC is flat the entire time, I'm expecting to lose 45k to theta, maybe another 25k to vega. Worst part of the curve a year out (assuming flat vega) is IBIT at 20 (BTC at \~35k) net loss is \~210k.
All in for about 350k, profit at expiration if IBIT is at 70 (BTC at \~125k) is 1.04 million
Net loss at expiration if IBIT is at 10 (BTC at \~17k) is 100k
Basically a bet that the chances of a return to the bull four year cycle is underpriced (BTC selling by holders of longer than a year bottomed November 2026, that cohort has been growing for a while now despite the negative price action - they currently hold 62% of BTC, up from 58% at the bottom).
I also think the left tail risks from quantum computing, mass liquidation by Saylor or Satoshi, coordinated adverse regulation by G7 nations, are also underpriced left tail risks.
I'm pretty happy to pay up for the muddy middle of outcomes I don't think will happen.
350k represents about 17% of my IRA