Very few industries are going through a downcycle as vicious and lengthy as the wood products industry in North America. In many segments and regions, adjusted EBITDA has either been breakeven or negative for three years already.
At the same time, it is an industry with leverage on the construction cycle in the US, benefiting from lower rates and a stronger economy. Some companies have the strength to survive the downcycle while retaining the convexity to an upcycle.
This article describes the industry in quite some detail (from the forest basins in the US to demand drivers in construction, to capacity and utilization, and margin history since the 1970s), and then analyzes all the public companies in the space in the US and Canada. The industry analysis portion is free to read.
