BofA revised hyperscaler capex to $2T+ through 2028 and chip stocks are about to get their real test

BofA just bumped their combined capex estimate for Alphabet, Meta, and AWS to $2.02T from $1.79T across 2026-2028. That's roughly $232B more than they previously modeled.

The thesis is pretty simple: if the big cloud players hold or raise capex in Q2 earnings, semiconductor stocks have runway. If they pull back, the narrative flips to peak demand and free cash flow, which is not great for NVDA or MU.

What caught my eye is the DRAM spot pricing already up 40% quarter over quarter. And Meta apparently needs 10x more compute for their next-gen model. They locked in a 1.6GW deal with Crusoe.

I pulled the data from moomoo community and honestly the capex chart is kind of wild when you see it laid out. GPU and server allocation sitting at 55-60% of total data center costs.

Q2 earnings season basically decides if the AI trade has legs or if we're in a digestion phase. Am I the only one watching capex guidance more than EPS right now?