Am I crazy for thinking semi equipment is the actual AI play, not the chips?

ok hear me out. everyone keeps piling into the usual AI names but i keep coming back to the picks and shovels angle.

was digging through some research on moomoo about wafer fab equipment spend. numbers are kinda nuts if they hit. WFE going from 110bn this year to 147bn next, then 196bn in 27, then 254bn by 28. thats roughly 30 percent yoy three years running. hyperscaler capex supposedly up 84 percent in 26 alone.

the four names that keep coming up are ASML, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC. citi has price targets on AMAT at 710, LRCX 450, KLAC 290 based on 28 earnings. obviously analyst PTs mean whatever you want them to mean lol.

what got my attention is the NAND angle. if KV cache workloads really blow up the way some people think, you might need 2 to 4 new NAND fabs which is 15 to 30bn in equipment orders. thats not priced in anywhere i can see.

risks are real though. AI capex could roll over, memory could disappoint again, and 28 has digestion risk written all over it. plus the china export stuff never really goes away.

i already hold a small AMAT position from way back. tempted to add LRCX. anyone here actually running the basket trade on all four? or am i late to the party and this is already in the price?