**IMPORTANT**: Please mr/ms/mrs mod person...read my post and understand before you try to delete it or ban me based on a knee jerk reaction. All rules are observed.
**Now To The Good Stuff**: The big pitch for UOA is that you get to see what big traders are buying and selling in realtime and the general thinking is that the people putting on these trades , supposedly, know something that we don't.
If you have traded UOA then you know that it is basically hit or miss. The truth is there is no way to know what the thinking/reason is behind these UOA trades until after the fact....and even then- it is still a guessing thing.
**Bottom line: UOA is not all it is cracked up to be.**
I am currently attempting to fix this. How you may ask? well follow closely:
**(1)** I have a database of previous UOA that includes the outcome ( win or loss) of every single one of these trades as well as the context, trade size, market conditions, IV, HV, venue/exchange etc and other details that may have contributed to the eventual outcome of the trade.
**(2)** The idea is to take every UOA trade over a certain $ size, find that ticker/symbol in the database and run the current trade in that stock against all previous trades in that same stock to see if there are any pattern matches.
**(3)** This way I can now see how strong the match is and how many times similar sweeps worked previously and , more importantly, what are the odds that the current trade will work.
Now I don't jus have a UOA alert that says " hey the big guys are buying XYZ Calls/Puts at X price ". Now I have real data to lean against.
Instead of just a vague alert, I now have info that looks something like this:
**MRVL** — June 12, 2026 $240 Call, 11 days to expiration
**Just Traded:** $1.6M of these calls in volume-burst activity.
• Volume is **3.1x prior open interest** — well above norm.
**Historical Performance** (45 similar setups)
• **26 of 45 (58%)** → options reached **+50%** within 10 days
• **26 of 45 (58%)** → options reached **+100%** within 10 days
• **14 of 45 (31%)** → options reached **+200%** within 10 days
• Average peak return: **+190.8%**
**Underlying Stock Behavior**
• **33 of 45 (73%)** → MRVL moved **+5%** or more
• Average move: **+13.0%**
**Confidence**
• **HIGH** (45 past occurrences with measurable option results)
**IMPORTANT**: This is NOT the final form of the output as I am still refining it. I have a database of only 26K+ previous trades because I have been tracking and trading UOA since like 2017. So I am working with a relatively small database so keep that in mind.
I think this is a worthwhile project and I am gathering more data to make it better. I will return with an update and actual trade results. As far as i am concerned, hard data is always better than the vague alerts. What do you think?