It's not just the inflation number, the dollar's reaction has hinged on the saving rate too. What are you watching at 8:30?

this is the Hola Prime team account, prop firm, posting openly. no call here, just thinking out loud before 8:30.

PCE drops this morning and it's the one the Fed actually leans on. the run into it's been firm, headline grinding toward 3.8%, core sticky near 3.3%, saving rate falling toward 2.6%.

the thing we keep coming back to is that the dollar's read on these prints hasn't been about the inflation number alone. looking back over the last several PCE releases, the firmest USD setups showed up when three things lined up together, hot inflation, spending that held up, AND a falling saving rate. when one of those broke (like the month income jumped but people saved more), the read got muddier and the dollar didn't get the same lift. so it's been the *combination*, not just CPI/PCE going hot.

which makes today's components more interesting than the headline. a hot print with firm spending and a still-falling saving rate is the "clean" USD-supportive combo. a hot headline but softening spending or a bounce in saving is a messier signal.

genuinely asking before it prints

are you watching the inflation number itself, or more the spending/saving mix underneath it?

if core comes in hot but spending softens, do you still read that as dollar-positive or not?

and is anyone even trusting the USD reaction to PCE right now with the oil/Iran stuff still pulling the tape around?