Four Day Losing Streak for the S&P, Key Support Levels and What to Watch Next Week

SPX has dropped four sessions in a row, the longest streak since March. But honestly, the total decline across those four days is under 1%. This is not a crash. It's a grind.

From a technical perspective, here are the key levels:

**Daily timeframe**:

* SPX has consolidated inside a 7320 to 7420 range, a 100 point band, for all four sessions. The 6/20 swing high sits around 7450. The 6/24 swing low is at 7323. Current price 7357, dead center of the zone. Neither here nor there, classic indecision.
* The 20 EMA sits at 7405. Price has closed below it for three consecutive sessions. Not a sign of strength.
* RSI(14) = 44, sliding from 68 in early June. Weak territory but not oversold.

**Higher timeframe (Weekly)**:

* On the weekly chart, 7300 is a very clean support zone. This is where price bounced in both March 2026 and May 2026. If this level breaks, the next liquidity pool sits at 7100 to 7150, which is the overlap of the December 2025 highs and the January 2026 lows.
* Upside resistance at 7500 to 7550, the two touch resistance from June.

**What to watch next week**:

1. PCE already came out Friday (before 7/3). Core PCE 3.4%, roughly in line, no shock. But CME FedWatch now shows a 66.4% probability of a September rate hike. If the FOMC minutes on Wednesday come out more hawkish than expected, 7300 will almost certainly get tested.
2. Watch the VIX futures term structure. Spot VIX is around 18 to 19 right now. If contango starts flattening, that means the market is beginning to hedge tail risk. I don't see it yet, but if it shows up, that's your warning flag.
3. Apple's 6% drop needs time to digest, but the bigger question is the Asian spillover on Friday, China's ChiNext down 4%, Nikkei down 3,000 points, KOSPI down 6%. Before Monday's US open, check ES futures overnight session action.

**What I'm doing**: no short positions above 7300, but also not adding. Sitting on 20% cash, watching. If 7300 gets tested early next week and holds, with a daily close above 7320, I'll consider adding XLI and IWM, the rotation beneficiaries. If 7300 breaks and can't reclaim, I'm cutting exposure below 50% and waiting for 7100 to reassess.

Where did you guys set your stops this week? Is 7300 consensus support or are you seeing deeper levels?