Found ARCC with descent IV, good dividend and ok liquidity.
Sold 18 put for in July for 0.35
39 days to expiration.
Delta -0.22
Theta -0.69
RoC 5 (estimated yearly return)
P50 88 (estimated probability for half of profit)
Days to P50 9 (estimated days to 50% profit)
This is the reasoning from the automated trade platform
Open the 18 put. Elevated relative volatility drove the decision, with IV rank at 56% and the July chain priced above recent realized volatility.
The put matches the positive view without using a naked call against the stock. The premium pays enough for a cash-secured IRA trade, and the half-profit estimate favors an early exit window rather than a long hold.
Risks center on price location and correlation. The stock trades at $18.77 inside a $17.40 to $23.42 yearly range, closer to the lower end, and correlation to SPY is 0.85. Liquidity does not block the trade. The 10.2% dividend yield helps the short-put setup, and puts carry no dividend assignment risk
All checks out, I think it's a descent trade. Thoughts?
