Adobe $ADBE earnings tonight after the bell. Play the Move or the Vol Crush?

I'll be playing the move. Here's my logic.

1. $ADBE has a history of moves post announcement greater than options trader expect.

2. Market is implying a 7.4% move. It's also projecting a vol crush of nearly seven points. The historical median move is 5.3% with a standard deviation of 8.3%. With 68% CI, the expected move is +/-13.6%. Factoring in vol crush, I'm going to need to get out before it's fully realized. Otherwise, the crush will overcome the implied move.

3. I'll put the trade on (defined risk IC) going into tonight's close and exit in the a.m. post price discovery, \~ 9:45.

4. This one is an edge case, so I'm fully prepared to take a loss. However, this earnings season there have been some major outliers, so if this one runs, expect it to run big.

5. With an asymmetrical position, I like this trade's high EV, even though expected win rate is no better than 50/50.

After today, there's only a few EA plays left until the Q2 earnings season kicks off middle of next month.

Happy trading!