I've been thinking about Adobe's investment thesis, and it feels like the market has reduced the entire company to one question:
"Will Adobe win AI?"
But is that really the right question?
What if Adobe doesn't become the #1 AI company, yet still creates tremendous shareholder value over the next decade?
Here's why I think that's possible:
1. Creative Cloud is still deeply embedded in professional workflows.
2. Enterprise customers don't just buy Photoshop—they buy an ecosystem (Creative Cloud, Acrobat, collaboration tools, asset management, etc.).
3. Adobe has pricing power and can increase revenue even without explosive customer growth.
4. Digital content creation is still growing globally.
5. Cross-selling across its product suite can continue to drive higher revenue per customer.
6. AI may eventually become just another feature rather than the main competitive advantage, shifting the focus back to workflow, ecosystem, integration, and switching costs.
To me, the more interesting question isn't:
"Will Adobe dominate AI?"
It's: "Ten years from now, will professionals and enterprises still be paying Adobe every month because it remains the best place to get creative work done?"
If the answer is yes, then perhaps the market is focusing too much on one growth driver while overlooking several others.
Curious to hear what everyone thinks.
Is Adobe's future really an AI story, or is the market underestimating the strength of its broader ecosystem and business model?