Doesn't the five dollar discovery deal make holding onto WBD stock worth it?

I've seen people on the sub say if you're currently holding WBD stock valued at $27, it's not worth it to hold onto it for another year, because the upside is a potential 10% or so return and the downside is the stock plumbing to pre-merger announcement value. However, this is based on the idea that if the deal goes through the shareholders will receive $31, however, that's not exactly true. The shareholders will receive $31 in cash, plus $.25 for every quarter the deal is delayed after December 31, and a position in the spinoff of Warner Bros Discover plus, which I've heard will likely be valued around five dollars. In this situation, it seems like holding onto WBD makes a lot of sense if you think it's very likely, the deal will go through. Do you think I'm missing anything?