This one is probably worth keeping an eye on... again
TLDR for those not following it. A couple months ago, SLS announced they were at 78 of the required 80 events for their Regal trial for a product called GPS which is used to treat AML. TAM for AML will depend on approval. Approval for CR1 and CR2 is likely a 4-5B TAM, CR2 only is more in the 1-2B range. The trial itself was derisked by an interim analysis in Dec of 24 which determined that no changes to the trial were needed as it was on track to meet its primary objective. The anticipated end date was Dec of 25. In other words, patients are living much longer than expected. They also have a second drug in an accelerated trial that could be approved towards the end of the year if the results are good. The 78 event announcement caused the stock to pop from the 5-6 range up to 9 (and then 9.50 a couple weeks later). If you bought the last time I posted this, you would have been able to sell a week later for a nice gain.
One of the big things holding down the price was \~25M (not clear on the exact number here, but this is what I've seen most commonly estimated) outstanding warrants at varying strikes in the $1-2 range. This event hammered the warrant holders pretty good forcing more than half of them to be executed. On June 2, they reported an additional 28.7M in income, which since they don't have commercial partners, it would have come from warrant exercise. The exact number of warrants exercised is unknown, but even if all were at a strike of $2 (and I believe the vast majority were under it), that would represent 14.3M warrants exercised.
Since then, short sellers have not exited.
[SLS / SELLAS Life Sciences Group, Inc. Stock - Short Interest, Short Squeeze, Borrow Rates](https://fintel.io/ss/us/sls#)
[SLS | Short Interest Tracker](https://shortinteresttracker.com/stock/SLS)
The short float as of this morning is at 33% with over 50% off exchange (note that as of now, the float itself doesn't appear to have been updated with the exercised warrants, so the percentage may be a bit lower). 13 days to cover. Borrow rates shot up yesterday and now sit at 62%. The stock price is also starting to slowly trickle up after the market theatrics over the last couple weeks, and closed at 8.05 yesterday after getting pushed down hard the last couple weeks. With 61M shares short right now, whatever is left of the remaining warrants won't put much of a dent in a squeeze should it squeeze.
As for catalysts, since the Interim analysis, patients have died at a rate of 1 per month, which puts completion at some point between early July and September if the last two take a bit longer. The company has publicly stated they will announce the 80th event when it happens and then announce topline when it completes, which will likely happen about a month after. I'm not sure what to think about the 80th event, but I do think that announcement will generate some repositioning as risk averse people will be inclined to exit against longs trimming to ensure some profits.
Unlike most biotechs, the stock is primarily retail owned (about 75% as I understand it), so it tends to behave more like a meme stock than a traditional biotech, which likely works in favor of a squeeze as we approach the 80th event. This will be even better if TopLine is successful, not so much if it fails.
Full disclosure:
Long 2500 shares in Account A at \~2/share and hope to trim a small amount if it clears 10.
Long 1300 shares in Account B at \~5/share
Not financial advice, did not use AI to write this.
**EDIT:** June 25, Cost to borrow according to Fintel now sits at 149%. Robinhood yesterday had it over 250%.
I didn't really cover options chains when I wrote this post, but this is pretty big. When I posted the SLS thread a month ago, we were looking at about 2M shares changing hands if memory serves. It was a decent amount.
SLS has now crossed the $10 mark touching $11 today. It was $8 when I wrote this. Here's where it gets more fun.
6/26 weekly options chain: 1.3M shares will change hands north of 10. If it can clear 11 by tomorrow, you can add 130k shares to that. Add another 120k shares if it clears 12.
7/2 weekly options chain: This isn't as exciting, but 400k shares change hands north of 10.
7/10 weekly options chain: Also quiet. Just shy of 100k shares exposed.
**7/17 weekly options chain: Nearly 10M shares are currently in the money.**
[SLS: SELLAS Life Sciences Group Inc Option Chain | OptionCharts](https://optioncharts.io/options/SLS/option-chain?option_type=all&expiration_dates=2026-07-17:m&view=straddle&strike_range=all)