Look at this: SpaceX options, day one, pure backwardation, front-month IV north of 100%, curve sloping into next year.
Now read the 424B4 - the lockup isn't a December cliff, it's staggered: 20% after Q2 earnings in August, then 7% tranches every few weeks, then 28% in a single shot after Q3 earnings in late October/November. December is just the leftovers.
There's also a conditional pull-forward nobody's talking about: another 10% unlocks early if SPCX holds 30% above the $135 IPO price, $175.50. It's at $216 now.
Clean backwardation makes sense when near-term uncertainty resolves into calm, but this supply schedule steps hard in August and then again in November. If you're selling December because lockup cliff, you might be trading the wrong expiry.
What are you guys playing and how are you positioning around November?
