BTC down 7% to $59k, ETFs bleeding $1.6B, MSTR sitting on $12.6B unrealized loss... are we at capitulation yet?

ngl this week was rough. pulled the weekly chart from moomoo and BTC is down 7.38% on the week, sitting around $59,724. ETH got hit even harder, off 9.34% to $1,557.

what's really getting me though is the ETF flow numbers. $1.6B in US spot BTC ETF outflows this week, apparently the second largest weekly outflow ever. that's not retail panic, that's institutions hitting the door.

and Strategy (MSTR) is now sitting on a $12.6B unrealized loss across 847K BTC. saylor's gonna saylor i guess but that's a real number now.

Fear and Greed at 15. extreme fear.

here's the weird part. tomorrow's quarterly options expiry covers like 8.1% of BTC's circulating market cap, and max pain is sitting at $72K, roughly 16% above spot. mechanically that should pull price up into expiry. but with the Fed still hawkish and long term holders capitulating, idk if mechanics beats macro this time.

honestly feels like that washout moment before things stabilize but i've been wrong before. my port is bleeding red, mostly hodling but trimmed some alts mid week.

anyone else holding through this or did you de-risk? curious if the ETF outflows make you bearish or if you see it as the contrarian buy signal.