NVDA is up only 9% YTD while the semiconductor index ripped 77% — is this the biggest disconnect in the market right now?

The company capturing 65-70% of all AI capex spending is trading at a 30-35% discount to the hyperscalers that buy its chips. That's honestly kind of wild to think about.

2027 Forward P/E at 15.7x, while big tech averages 22x. Hyperscaler capex grew 115% last quarter and these guys are buying NVDA hardware to make that happen.

The retail conviction data is interesting too. The NVDA/MU trading ratio dropped from 7:1 in March down to 0.33:1 by early July, which sounds bearish on the surface. But absolute trader counts are actually at new highs, so it's more like the thesis broadened to include MU than people bailing on NVDA.

I pulled the chart on moomoo and the valuation gap vs. The SOX index is just sitting there, unresolved. Either the semis are overpriced or NVDA is very mispriced. BofA has a $350 target on it, which would be 70%+ from here.

August 26 earnings is the next real catalyst. Either the market closes this gap or someone has to explain why the picks-and-shovels play gets discounted harder than the end users.

Anyone else holding into earnings or did you already trim?