Micron earnings Tuesday and the bar feels insanely high, anyone else nervous?

ok so MU prints FY26Q3 on the 24th and the consensus numbers are kinda nuts.

revenue estimate sitting at 35.43B vs their own guide of 33.5B. thats up 281% YoY if you trust the street. gross margin pegged at 81.8%. net income est 23.66B which is like 1155% YoY growth lol.

been watching this name on moomoo for a few weeks and IV is at 114% with positive gamma stacking up. translation, dealers are basically capping the move unless something really breaks the script.

heres what i keep going back and forth on:

non AI memory pricing has been carrying a lot of the gross margin story. is that actually durable or are we one inventory build away from giving it back

2026 capex is reportedly headed north of 25B. every memory cycle in history has ended with someone overbuilding. why is this time different

they keep teasing the HBM TAM going from 35B in 25 to \~100B by 28. if mgmt doesnt raise long term HBM guide on the call i feel like the stock just bleeds regardless of the beat

honestly the setup reminds me of nvidia prints last year where you needed a guide raise AND a TAM raise just to hold the line. a clean beat wont cut it.

im flat going in. got burned chasing semis into prints before. anyone actually holding through? and if so are you playing shares or stretching it with calls given that IV crush is gonna be brutal