MU earnings Tuesday and IV is sitting at the 98th percentile, anyone else nervous?

Micron drops fiscal Q3 on the 24th and the setup looks kinda insane. street is at 35.4B rev vs the 33.5B guide, gross margin consensus 81.8%, and net income basically up 1,155% YoY. like, those are not normal numbers.

been watching this on the moomoo community all week and the bull case keeps coming back to one thing, does mgmt actually raise the HBM TAM number. they were throwing around \~35B for 2025 and a \~100B target by 2028, and if they nudge that higher the whole memory complex probably rips. if they dont, i think this thing fades hard even on a beat.

what scares me is the capex. FY26 already pegged north of 25B and FY27 supposedly even bigger. feels like the classic memory cycle trap where everyone is happy until somebody whispers oversupply.

options IV is at 114, 98th percentile rank. straddle is pricing a monster move. i nibbled some shares last week, didnt have the stomach for premium that rich.

couple things i actually want to know:

\- can non HBM memory hold these margins or is that the soft underbelly

\- is anyone playing this with spreads instead of naked calls/puts

\- if MU rips, does SNDK follow or does it stay forgotten

honestly torn between trimming into print and just sitting on hands. anyone else holding through?