I've posted about Jones a few times over the past year and it's all playing out. Here's an update:
**New management took a broken company to profitability in 4 quarters. Break-even is $10M/quarter, they're doing $12M+, insiders are buying, and the uplist is in motion.**
Position disclosure: I'm long. DYOR.
**The turnaround, in one paragraph.** The current CEO/CFO team took over in Q2 2025 when this company was doing $2.6M quarterly revenue and bleeding $4.5M a quarter. Four quarters later: Q4 2025 came in at $11.7M (+450%) with positive adjusted EBITDA, and Q1 2026 hit $12.4M (+194%), beat guidance, and posted **positive GAAP net income**. Most microcap turnarounds are promises. This one is already happening.
**The number that matters: $10M.** The CFO has stated on the record that adjusted EBITDA break-even is $10M of net sales per quarter. They just printed two straight quarters above it, and formal guidance calls for **FY2026 revenue to exceed $40M** (+60%) – and watch for this to be adjusted up on the next earnings call.
Above break-even, incremental revenue drops through at \~31% gross margin — every $1M/quarter above $10M is roughly $600-700K of annualized EBITDA after variable costs. And margins are set to improve from here: management has negotiated better supplier pricing tied to 2026 volumes with gross margin gains expected later this year, warehousing cost reductions started in Q2, trade spend fell from 13.5% of revenue to 9.5%, and SG&A fell from 26.3% to 16.4%. Both sides of the operating leverage equation are moving the right way at once.
**The growth engine is a platform — and the phone is ringing.** Fallout/Bethesda proved Jones can take massive IP, turn it into high-velocity collectible club packs, and execute nationally. Sunset Sarsaparilla went national in March; retailers asked for more, so the Vault-Tec 12-pack (three new Nuka flavors) hit club stores across the US and Canada in June. The part most people missed from the calls: licensed properties have been contacting *Jones* — inbound — saying "saw what you did with Fallout, do that for us," and big-box retailers who previously wouldn't take a meeting are now calling. The next partnership isn't a hope; it's a pipeline.
**And the timing is perfect: 90s nostalgia is peaking, and Jones IS a 90s brand.** Founded in 1995, Jones is the original counterculture soda — the brand skaters and gamers grew up with, now that demographic has peak disposable income. The CEO has said explicitly that collaborations rooted in culture, virality, and nostalgia outperform traditional product innovation. The brand equity was never the problem; monetizing it was. This team figured out how.
The base compounds too: 650 top-volume Walmarts, \~1,750 Circle K stores in Canada, Jones Zero launching this summer into soda's fastest-growing shelf, Pop Jones/Fiesta relaunching across \~1,700 stores.
**Insiders put their own cash in.** On the Q1 call, the CFO stated that both he and the CEO would personally participate in the placement — which then priced at a **premium to market**. Executives writing personal checks, at a premium, in a structure built for a much higher price. The cleanest signal there is.
**The uplist is in motion.** Management is committed to the S-1 process and a Nasdaq/NYSE America uplisting, potentially in 2026 — with a portion of the raise proceeds specifically supporting the project. OTC status is what's capping this stock: institutions can't buy it, major retail platforms restrict or block it, no margin eligibility, thin liquidity. An uplist changes nothing about the business — it changes *who's allowed to own it*, overnight.
**What they said at the Planet MicroCap conference in June (webcast, not yet in any transcript coverage):** management is exploring **M&A opportunities** that would add volume and improve margins — which stacks directly on the supplier-pricing dynamic above, since acquired volume makes *existing* revenue more profitable. They're working on partnerships with **major alcohol players for a renewed Spiked Jones rollout** later this year — a real upgrade from the repositioning language on the earnings calls. And a **refreshed website with subscription options** is coming to drive DTC — the highest-margin channel they have, with a collector audience already trained to buy drops direct. My read on the M&A angle (mine, not theirs): post-uplist, with a real currency and a national club/retail machine already built, Jones becomes a natural consolidator in fragmented craft soda.
**Major catalyst priced at zero:** Jones deliberately idled HD9 ($0.9M → $0.2M/quarter) ahead of the November 2026 federal hemp ban. But in June the **White House formally asked Congress** to rewrite the hemp rules or delay the ban; bipartisan bills would push it to 2028, and the leading Senate framework carves out a 10mg-per-container lane specifically for *beverages* — the exact product Jones already built and distributed. Any legislative movement is pure upside.
**The math (mine, not guidance):** \~$50M run rate, \~$37M market cap — \~0.75x sales, profitable, growing triple digits, with $4.4M cash and a $10M credit facility. Beverage comps growing a fraction as fast trade 1.5-3x sales. At $50M revenue: 1.5x ≈ $0.55, 2x ≈ $0.74, 3x ≈ $1.48— and the uplist closes the gap.
**H2 catalysts:** Q2 earnings (Aug): Vault-Tec sell-through + Jones Zero data → next licensing announcement (inbound pipeline) → Spiked Jones relaunch news → new website/subscription launch → S-1/uplist milestones → M&A news → HD9 legislative movement.
**Honest risks:** licensing revenue could be lumpy; freight surcharges are an H2 headwind; the uplist has no committed date; Spiked Jones relaunch has to prove out; M&A is exploratory; Congress may punt on hemp; and Q2 needs to hold the run rate. That last one is the test — and exactly why this still trades at 0.75x sales.
Profitable. Guiding $40M+. Insiders buying at a premium. Uplist. Inbound licensing pipeline. M&A on the table. 90s nostalgia tailwind. Current valuation under 1x sales. That combination doesn't stay cheap. Not financial advice.
I believe the next few weeks before the Q2 earnings call in mid-August is the last chance to get in at this price point - up from there for the next 12 months. Best of luck to all.