Here is my once in a lifetime Pepe Silvia post:
Esophageal cancer (EC) is one of the most deadly cancers, and incidence has increased something like 400-600% since 1975 (depending on the study).
It can be cured entirely when it's caught early, but it's almost never caught early because nobody wants to get an endoscopy.
Professional societies (AGA, ACG, NCCN) have defined a screening population for EC, which is basically anyone with reflux (aka heartburn), plus 3 other risk factors: male, white, age >50, obesity, smoker, etc. About 30M people in the US fall into this screening population.
SO TO SUMMARIZE OUR SITUATION - deadly cancer, skyrocketing incidence, but can be entirely prevented if it's caught early. We even know who is at risk, but we have no way to quickly and cheaply screen them.
Enter Lucid Diagnostics (LUCD) and Esoguard. It's a one of a kind test that is on the market already, and enables screening for EC+precancer with a 2 minute test that you can do anywhere. It has a 99% negative predictive value, meaning if you test negative, you can be quite confident you are cancer free. If positive, then you need an endoscopy to dial in the diagnosis. It works exactly the same as Cologuard and colonoscopy (Exact recently bought by Abbott for $23B).
WHY IS THIS A BIG DEAL? - If Esoguard were universally adopted, over time it could eliminate esophageal cancer. Not treat it, not extend survival by 3 months, eliminate a type of cancer.
I think that's remarkable. We are drowning in investment options these days, but very few companies have the potential impact on humanity that Lucid could have. We're talking about screening nearly 10% of America for EC. It's a huge undertaking, but a worthwhile one.
I won't get too deep into the financials, but the total addressable market is somewhere in the $50-60B range (based on the 30M screening population and Medicare payment rate $1938) and gross margin per test is over 90%. Cash burn is $10-12M per quarter right now. Dilution is definitely a risk, especially if they face more delays in securing insurance coverage.
Do your own due diligence and decide for yourself if Lucid is a good investment or not, but I just think what they are trying to do is QUITE REMARKABLE and deserves more attention.
Disclaimer: I own the stock (LUCD), and this is not investment advice.
Sources:
[https://academic.oup.com/jnci/article-abstract/100/16/1184/913212?redirectedFrom=fulltext&login=false](https://academic.oup.com/jnci/article-abstract/100/16/1184/913212?redirectedFrom=fulltext&login=false)
[https://gastro.org/clinical-guidance/new-technology-and-innovation-for-surveillance-and-screening-in-barretts-esophagus-be/](https://gastro.org/clinical-guidance/new-technology-and-innovation-for-surveillance-and-screening-in-barretts-esophagus-be/)
[https://youtu.be/9SyCyQQz8QE?si=q-SQL8P\_p1O\_s2o2](https://youtu.be/9SyCyQQz8QE?si=q-SQL8P_p1O_s2o2)