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An imprecise way of thinking about Pepsi ($pep) valuation

R
Jul 13, 2026 · 04:49

**(TLDR: it is cheap for a reason)**

The market is valuing Pepsi as a company incapable of growing at above GDP growth rates of 3%. The analysts think they can grow 4 to 5% in the next 5 years. Morningstar think they can grow 5% for the next 10 years and values it at 169.

The issues with Pepsi are well known, they raised prices too much to increase sales and customers revolted by turning to private label. As a result, they lost market share despite an increase in earnings and sales. Now they try to reverse this by lowering prices but customers are not flocking back yet.

In conclusion, if you think Pepsi can grow at the 4-5% growth rates then it is currently cheap. If you think it will take a while for customers to come back and problems will persist for a while then it is at fair value and it be better to wait for a better price.

How much would Buffett pay for the shares? Well, I won’t think he would buy coz he owns Coke and he switched from Pepsi a long time ago. But if he were to buy Pepsi, my guess is perhaps 10-15x this year’s eps of around 8.57 (end 2026) or 85.7 to 128.6.

( if Pepsi doesn’t grow but merely main its current adj EPs (ttm) of 8.36 FOREVER, then the fair value would be 8.36/9% =92.889 or 8.36/7.1% =117.746 depending on the discount rate, I use 9% for everything, Morningstar thinks the WACC of Pepsi is 7.1% )

I will attached the chart in the comments.