Everyone keeps asking why **Salesforce keeps dropping**. Almost nobody asks **why it was so high to begin with**.
On paper it looks cheap: strong revenue growth, a PE below its historical average, the classic "**great company at a good price**." But that's exactly what a value trap looks like.
**Salesforce doesn't really have a moat** except switching costs. That's a great moat if you're an elevator company doing maintenance, since nobody rips out their elevators just to change providers. But those companies don't trade at SaaS valuations. **In SaaS, the market pays for growth**. When the growth goes, you're left with a company surviving on its existing user base, and that trades at a much lower multiple.
People also keep getting the bear case wrong. **They put words in the bears' mouths**, claiming "they think everyone will build their own Salesforce because of AI," then knock down an argument nobody actually made. **That's a straw man. No serious investor thinks people will go write their own CRM.**
The real point is different. SaaS used to have a huge moat simply because the codebase was so hard to build. It's still hard, but far easier than before. A competitor with **small team can now build what used to take a much larger one**. That moat is disappearing. There's real disruption potential here, the kind the internet was to newspapers. Some survived it and some disappeared, and even the ones that survived didn't keep the business they had before.
The only two questions left: is the current price already pricing in these risks and then some, and **will Salesforce be a turnaround story or just another Fiverr**?