Iranian oil impact on fuel prices may well not have shown up in the previous estimations, given everyone believed the war was going to end shortly.
While a lot of airlines carry fuel hedges, American doesn't. Delta more than most, and Delta just assured everyone they'll be fine; that doesn't mean AAL will be.
Now look at that cyclical chart for the last five years, and consider their earnings are in a couple weeks. They're trading at 55x PE. What do you think happens if they lower guidance going forward based on actual fuel impacts from Iran, not just the wildly manipulated market numbers?
Maybe I'm wrong. Not advice. Open to hearing arguments against.
I'm holding 225 puts Jan '27 @ 5.
