Nvidia's next earnings report on may 20 could send the stock soaring

NVIDIA earnings this week feel bigger than just another report, it’s effectively a read on the entire AI trade, with NVDA acting as one of the main drivers of S&P 500 performance this year.

There is also a political angle that keeps coming up in discussions, with reports of Donald Trump taking positions earlier this year, alongside broader policy attention on AI leadership and China chip export restrictions. It adds another layer to NVDA beyond just earnings and growth.

Expectations are already very high, with revenue growth running above \~70% YoY on strong AI demand. The risk is that the bar has moved so high that even solid results may not be enough if guidance doesn’t clearly exceed expectations.

Key themes heading into the print include continued AI infrastructure spending from major tech companies, questions around how long NVDA can maintain its dominance as competition increases, and geopolitical constraints around exports.

I looked at a structured breakdown using Bitget GetAgent to help frame the setup, and the main takeaway was that this is more of a positioning driven event than a pure fundamentals story. The market is already leaning bullish, which creates a situation where strong results could extend momentum, but anything less than a clear beat could lead to a fast unwind due to crowded positioning.

What are we actually trading here, the earnings, or just everyone’s expectations of what the earnings should be?