altcoin order books are getting thinner and it is changing how I trade them
People keep asking why alts dump so hard every time BTC wicks. The answers I see are mostly about sentiment or weak hands. Some of that is probably true but I think there is a more boring reason people are not talking about. The order book is empty.
I really noticed it on June 4. BTC dropped fast and the majors followed, which is normal. But the smaller alts did not just drop, there was literally nothing to buy into. I was watching a mid cap I hold and the bid side went from a few layers to one wall and then gone. Spread went from a tick or two to almost a full percent in like two minutes. If you had a stop market sitting there it filled at the worst print of the wick because there was no bid underneath.
That is not the coin being weak. That is nobody being there to take the other side.
You see the same thing on most alt pairs now. Pull up the book on any tier two exchange and the middle is just gone. Makers pulled their resting orders and only come back when things calm down. So when the next leg down happens there is nothing to catch it. A market order that used to slide a few ticks now goes twice as far. I have been checking depth side by side on BYDFi and Binance for a few pairs and even on the bigger book the spread gets ugly the second volume ticks up.
What changed is not really sentiment. The people who used to make markets on alt pairs pulled back. Some of it is market makers deleveraging, some of it is them moving to perps where the flow actually is. Either way the spot book has been getting thinner for a while and it stays thin. You can see it in the alt subs too, way quieter than last year, so interest and liquidity are both leaving at the same time. Not really a coincidence.
I stopped using market orders on alts completely. Everything is limit now, usually a bit below mid to give myself room. If it does not fill, fine, I would rather miss it than eat three percent slippage on a coin that has ten bucks of depth between me and the next print. I also started splitting my size into chunks because dropping one order into a thin book just moves the price against you before you even get filled.
The thing that bugs me is that thinner books make the dumps look way worse than the coin actually is, which scares people into selling, which thins the book more. It feeds itself. The chart looks like a cliff but the project is often fine, you are just looking at a market with no buyers in it.
Mostly posting this because I keep seeing people blame the teams or the tokens when half the time the real issue is just that nobody is making a market on these pairs anymore. The chart is kind of lying to you when the book is that empty.