EchoStar (ECHO) – Anyone else watching the bond pricing vs the spectrum deals?

Saw the post about Hughes Satellite bonds trading at a discount and figured I’d share what I’ve been looking at.

EchoStar has two big FCC-approved spectrum transactions: roughly $23B with AT&T and a large deal with SpaceX that includes cash plus an equity stake. These are supposed to close in stages over the coming months.

On the debt side, the Hughes 5.25% notes due August 1, 2026 are trading well below par (recently highlighted around the mid-60s to mid-80s depending on the day). The 6.625% notes are also discounted. Bond market seems to be pricing in some real risk around repayment of these subsidiary obligations. Note that these are mostly at the sub level and not fully guaranteed by the parent.

A few other things that stand out:

Founder/CEO still owns about 50%

Legacy debt load from the DISH days is heavy

If the spectrum cash actually comes through, it should clean up the balance sheet significantly and cut the interest expense

I’m currently holding some shares and calls, but it’s definitely not a clean or simple situation.

Curious where others stand on this one. Do you think they’ll upstream cash to make the Hughes bondholders whole, or is there a chance the subsidiary sees some restructuring / pain? How are you guys thinking about the timing risk on the deal closings?Not financial advice — just putting the topic out there. Would be good to hear different takes. DYOR and check the actual filings/bond quotes yourself.