Take a look at earnings:
**Annual EPS (diluted):**
* 2021: $11.83
* 2022: $12.64
* 2023: $20.12
* 2024: $22.05
* 2025: $18.92
* TTM: $20.20
* Q1 2026 (annualized): $22.16 ($5.54 × 4)
The most recent "blowout" quarter that beat estimates by a dollar, sent the stock up 6% pre-market, and generated almost hysterical coverage about AI power infrastructure — annualized, it gets CAT back to where they were in 2024. The earnings have gone literally nowhere in three years while the stock has nearly quadrupled.
The next quarterly report is August 4, with a consensus estimate of $6.21 — which would annualize to \~$24.84. Even if they beat that by another dollar, you're looking at a company earning $25-26 in a best-case 2026, trading at 38-40x.
For the stock to simply hold $990 at a normal industrial multiple of 20x, they'd need to earn \~$50 per share. That's more than double where they are now, and the capacity to get there doesn't come online until 2028-2029, during which time capex will be compressing free cash flow.
The entire $700 move from $295 to $990 is a story about what earnings *will be* in 2029 or 2030.
I get the MU story and the Sandisk story and all the rest. This story makes absolutely no sense. This is a bigger move by the way than the stock went through during the housing building bubble in 2006-7.