TRIP is still trading around $13–14, more than 30% up in a month, but the structure underneath is even more interesting than the chart suggests.
Short interest is 34M shares (30% of float) with 14 days to cover. Borrow rate is still extremely low (0.40%), and available shares to short have even increased to 2M. That tells me shorts are still comfortable adding exposure rather than being forced to cover, so this is not a panic squeeze setup yet, but it is a crowded positioning setup.
At the same time, we just had a major catalyst (TheFork sale + $700M cash event), but AGM passed without a concrete buyback decision. Starboard also hasn’t pushed anything public yet. So the stock has basically shifted into a holding pattern between $13–14 while the market waits on capital allocation clarity.
What makes the bullish case more interesting is that none of the upside scenarios require perfect execution.
A meaningful buyback (size + timing) would directly reduce float and pressure shorts
Viator is still being implied at roughly $4–5/share, (same as TheFork) which could re-rate higher if growth or positioning improves
Even without earnings upside, a simple shift in narrative (capital return + focused growth asset) can support a higher multiple
If price breaks and holds above 14.5–15, positioning starts to shift from comfortable short to risk management mode.
It’s also worth noting that valuation optics (like P/E) currently look elevated mainly because the earnings base is still relatively small and distorted by one-off items. That means even a relatively normal buyback of 20–30% of market cap (1,6b now) could mechanically reduce share count and compress P/E by 15–30% without any earnings growth, while also improving sentiment and supporting a higher multiple.
On top of that, there is still an underappreciated angle: potentially deeper cooperation with American Express beyond just TheFork sale. Given Amex’s premium customer base, even light integration or distribution partnerships into Viator or experiences could materially improve visibility and demand without needing any acquisition-level news.
So overall, it doesn’t feel like a stretched bullish thesis but more like a setup where a couple of not unlikely catalysts (buyback + stable Viator + Amex distribution angle) could force a re-rating, especially with crowded shorts sitting on top.
I am currently long TRIP. I financed this position by selling NOK shares bought at $4.05 and sold at $16.50, and rotated the proceeds into TRIP.