I’m long 3,546 shares of MSOS across 3 accounts, so yes, I am already in the weed stock dumpster with the rest of the bagholders.
**This is not a short squeeze post. The short interest is not the thesis.**
The thesis is simpler: I think the market is treating cannabis rescheduling like nothing meaningful can happen soon, and I’m not sure that’s right.
Current consensus seems pretty obvious:
* Schedule III is slow
* July 15 is just process
* DEA takes forever
* cannabis always disappoints
* MSOS holders are permanently cooked
Honestly, fair. This sector has been a graveyard.
But the part I think people are underpricing is 280E.
For anyone who has not followed this garbage sector, 280E is the tax rule that has been wrecking U.S. cannabis operators for years. They pay taxes like drug traffickers and do not get normal business deductions. It is one of the main reasons these companies can have real revenue and still look financially cursed.
If Schedule III eventually kills 280E going forward, that is already bullish.
But the real grenade is retroactive 280E relief / protective refund claims.
If Treasury or IRS guidance gives MSOs a real path to retroactive relief, this stops being a weed-stock vibes trade and becomes a balance-sheet trade.
That could mean refunds, reduced tax liabilities, better liquidity, less debt panic, and a fast rerate across the U.S. MSO basket.
The important part is timing. This does not necessarily need to arrive on a clean court schedule. Tax guidance can just drop. The market seems to be pricing this like delay is guaranteed and surprise is impossible.
Could this still go nowhere? Obviously.
Cannabis has blue-balled traders for years. July 15 does not automatically mean final rescheduling. Guidance could be narrow. The IRS could tell everyone to pound sand. MSOS could keep doing MSOS things and bleed out while everyone argues about federal process.
That is why I’m in shares instead of weeklies. I do not trust myself, the government, or weed stocks enough to time this with options.
I’m not saying this is guaranteed. I’m saying the setup looks ugly enough, hated enough, and weird enough that I actually like it.
*"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."*
Position: 3,546 shares of MSOS across 3 accounts. No calls right now.