I was trying to understand why SPCX is struggling to hold a bid after the Nasdaq100 inclusion, and the lock-up math is probably part of the answer.
The IPO issued 638.9M Class A shares at $135, including the full greenshoe. The first major post-IPO unlock is 911.5M shares after Q2 results + 2 trading days. That alone is 142% of the IPO-issued shares. If the extra Q2 price trigger is met, another 456M shares can unlock, taking that first window to more than 2x the IPO-issued share count.
Lock up dates matter, but the real risk is scale: how many shares become eligible for sale versus the IPO float. I find this useful when accumulating newly listed companies, so this calendar may help someone else.
Data fed into chatgpt: SEC 8-K for IPO shares/pricing and the SEC 424(b)(4) lock-up schedule. Tables generated by chatgpt.