So the court’s last opinion drop before they go dark for winter break is tuesday morning 10am eastern. After that we’re in radio silence until feb 20th or so
Been running some scenarios in my head. If they actually strike these tariffs down I could see SPY ripping 3-5% just on pure relief. Market loves certainty even if it’s temporary
But if they uphold them… man that’s just more chaos. Could see a 3-5% drop as we settle into this new normal of trade policy whiplash. The constant back and forth tweets about tariffs have been exhausting to trade around
Or the third path, they just kick the can. No opinion at all. We all sit here watching tea leaves for another month and a half while the uncertainty eats away at premiums
I’ve got some feb 20th straddles I’m thinking about pulling the trigger on before tuesday. The IV on those is actually not terrible right now considering the potential binary event
What’s everyone else thinking here. Am I overestimating the impact or is this genuinely a market mover