TSOH Weekly Roundup (07/03/26)

Jul 9, 2026 · 09:23

↗ https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/tsoh-weekly-roundup-070326

Welcome to another edition of <a href="https://thescienceofhitting.com/t/tsoh">TSOH Weekly Roundup</a>. Each update features a Chart of the Week, along with a brief discussion on three news items relevant to companies in the TSOH investable universe.Chart Of The Week (from “<a href="https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/ollies-a-good-stock-cheap">Ollie’s: A Good Stock Cheap?</a>”)<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TyyY!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe4c4d82a-53c2-4dff-8a66-3a0443986ac7_915x666.jpeg" target="_blank"><div class="image2-inset"><source type="image/webp" /><img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="666" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TyyY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe4c4d82a-53c2-4dff-8a66-3a0443986ac7_915x666.jpeg" width="915" /><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image" tabindex="0" type="button"><svg fill="none" height="20" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" viewBox="0 0 20 20" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image" tabindex="0" type="button"><svg class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2" fill="none" height="20" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><a class="button primary" href="https://thescienceofhitting.com/subscribe?">Subscribe now</a>Three Notable Items<a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/media/comcast-nbcuniversal-split-cmcsa-stock-20b8a3d0">“Comcast Plans Company Split as Competition Escalates”</a>I have waited <a href="https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/comcast-q1-fy21">more than five years</a> for Comcast to pursue a strategic change of this kind at NBCUniversal (NBCU), but it’s better late than never. Kudos to Brian Roberts and the team for demonstrating needed <a href="https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/an-open-letter-to-comcast-ceo-brian">urgency and focus</a>.“Comcast executives began discussing the split in recent weeks as it became clear that greater flexibility would help the company navigate the increasingly challenging broadband and media markets.”<a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/consumers-shun-mid-sized-packs-amid-price-squeeze-nestle-says-38f2f37d?mod=business_lead_story">“Consumers Shun Mid-Sized Packs Amid Price Squeeze”</a>An article about Nestle’s learnings on bifurcation in consumer behavior as it relates to pack sizes. Broadly, I think this speaks to the need for consumer value proposition segmentation by manufacturers and retailers; for TSOH, that comment is particularly applicable for retailers like <a href="https://thescienceofhitting.com/t/dltr">Dollar Tree</a> / <a href="https://thescienceofhitting.com/t/olli">Ollie’s</a> on one end of the spectrum, and <a href="https://thescienceofhitting.com/t/bj">BJ’s</a> / <a href="https://thescienceofhitting.com/t/cost">Costco</a> on the other end of the spectrum.“Top executives at the maker of KitKat chocolate and Nescafe coffee have noticed consumers, pinched by inflation, are opting for either smaller portions or mega-sized value packs. ‘In tough times, purchasing polarizes. The bit in the middle always gets squeezed.’ The value of large sizes is particularly attractive at the moment. For everyday treats, there is still demand - but more interest in smaller packs. Mid-sized formats are getting the cold shoulder.”<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-01/meta-is-building-a-cloud-business-to-sell-excess-ai-compute">“Meta Is Planning a Cloud Business to Sell AI Computing Power”</a>My initial takeaway from this announcement is to note the evolving strategies and blurring lines in mega cap tech; that isn’t new, but it keeps proceeding in one direction. In combination with unfathomably large CapEx spending, I think these have become tougher investment decisions, with a meaningfully different risk / reward profile than five years ago (in terms of the long-term business results). For me, it has impacted how I think about <a href="https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/q1-2026-portfolio-update">position sizing</a>.“Meta, which has been rushing to secure expensive data centers and other infrastructure to fuel its own artificial intelligence ambitions, is forming a business to generate revenue from excess computing power sold to outside customers, according to people familiar with the matter.”TSOH UpdatesHere’s the updated research list for the past six months:<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y3dO!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92fa4f1d-93fa-4fa5-b952-3d742d10a60c_1036x637.jpeg" target="_blank"><div class="image2-inset"><source type="image/webp" /><img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="637" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y3dO!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92fa4f1d-93fa-4fa5-b952-3d742d10a60c_1036x637.jpeg" width="1036" /><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image" tabindex="0" type="button"><svg fill="none" height="20" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" viewBox="0 0 20 20" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image" tabindex="0" type="button"><svg class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2" fill="none" height="20" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div>Monday’s TSOH post will be the Q2 2026 Portfolio Update.Have a great weekend!NOTE - This is not investment advice. Do your own due diligence.I make no representation, warranty, or undertaking, express or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or reasonableness of the information presented in this report. Assumptions, opinions, and estimates expressed in this report constitute my judgment as of the date thereof and are subject to change without notice. Projections are based on a number of assumptions, and there is no guarantee that they will be achieved. TSOH Investment Research is not acting as your advisor or in any fiduciary capacity.