I think price targets are useful, but mostly for the assumptions behind them
I see a lot of people dismiss analyst price targets because they often move after the stock already moved.
I get that criticism. If a stock jumps 20% after earnings and the target gets raised the next morning, that does not feel like much of a signal.
But I still think price targets can be useful if you treat them as a model summary instead of a prediction.
The number itself is usually the least interesting part. The useful parts are the assumptions behind it:
1. Revenue growth
What growth rate is the analyst assuming, and for how long?
2. Margins
Are they assuming operating leverage, pricing power, or cost cuts?
3. Multiple
Is the target coming from actual earnings power, or just a higher valuation multiple?
4. Time horizon
Is this supposed to be a 12-month target, or basically a long-term story squeezed into a short-term number?
5. What changed
Did the analyst change the target because the business changed, or because the stock price moved?
To me, a price target is not "this stock will go here." It is more like: "if these assumptions are right, this is what the model says."
Curious how others use them. Do you ignore price targets completely, use them as sentiment, or read the assumption bridge behind the number?