I’ve been keeping a running list of everything that was “supposed to” break the market this year.

January: de-dollarization headlines everywhere. Foreign pension funds cutting exposure to U.S. bonds, everyone acting like Treasuries were about to become toxic. Market kept going.

February: the tariff mess. Supreme Court ruling, new tariff headlines, legal fights, inflation worries. I remember thinking “okay, this one should matter.”Market kept going.

March: oil spiked, Iran headlines got worse, and every Trump post felt like it could move a trillion dollars in either direction. Market still found a way higher.

I've decided my time is better spent on things I can actually predict.

Markets are apparently not one of them and I've made peace with that. Buy the index, add it every month, go touch the grass. See you at the next all-time high when we're all shocked again.

My long-term money is VTI/VXUS every month. If I want to have a specific view on a specific event, I’ve been using small prediction market positions on moomoo instead. That feels cleaner to me than pretending every macro opinion needs to become a portfolio move. I can have a view on tariffs, oil, elections, or whatever without touching the part of my money that’s supposed to compound quietly.