Micron's earnings last week just confirmed it. We are in a memory supercycle, and the AI build out play is still SUPERRR
SNDK just got major price target upgrades from all the analysts. MAJOR upgrades. SNDK is sitting at about $320B market cap. It was a quarter ahead of Micron on announcing 5 year supply contracts. The memory boys are playing it smarter, and locking in those gains for longer, smoothing out their revenue to avoid the bumpy cyclity that all of memory had previous suffered from. AI Capex spending has even INCREASED, multiple times already, this year, and is projected to get even higher.
In my humble opinion, there are only two actual bear cases to the thesis.
The first is Capex, and therefore AI buildout spending, collapses. HaHaHA! With the capabilities shown from Anthropic's newest models, and what Gemini has shown, there ain't no way spending will slow down. Sure, everyone is worried about overspending and ROI. Companies are slowly learning, though, how to properly use it. Instead of outright replacing departments, it is meant as a tool to help you become more efficient. 1 person now does the work of 5. You still need someone to review and proof the work. This means needing more creatives.
The second is oversupply. Samsung and SK Hynix announced, in working with the SK government, 1.2 trillion over the next decade for fab. This is a legitimate concern, and oversupply has been the main culprit for past memory crashes. However, the problem with this is that a build normally takes at least 3 years before it can go online, and then there is ramping of production, and also the 5 year supply contracts that will help mitigate the impacts. This problem, if Samsung and SK Hynix actually commit to this capital spending (or if they decide to back out later) is for years down the road, at least half a decade or more out.
The non legit criticisms:
1. Zoom out - yes, SNDK got spun off from WDC for a very low price right before the AI play superjuiced it. Was this a misplay by WDC? Bigly. Sure SNDK has run up over 60x since its re-IPO, but it was SUPER undervalued then, and is still undervalued now.
2. The war - Yes, but this would affect every stock. Go play in gold, silver, oil or bonds if you are worried you cuck face. Helium shortages? We aint talking about consumer customers, but businesses. Mag7 included. You don't think they got money?
3. Ur mum - ur dad
4. What about DRAM, or WDC, or CRSR or, or, or - Shut the fuck up, this is a play about Sandisk. I address why below. Any of the memory plays are good though.
I bought before Micron's earnings last week, and I am still holding. Hopefully they will do a stock split. Any memory is a good play, but the reason I've got SNDK is because their margins are the most insane, and they have shown the biggest growth so far out of all the memory plays. SNDK is estimated to have earnings August 13, and believe you me, it'll blow some backs out.
Tl;dr - Memory supercycle is still SUPER, cocks out boys and girls. Written from my computer with a Sandisk SSD. I did not use AI to write this up, but I wish I had. Sent from my Samsung Galaxy S26 Ultra 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
