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Ollie's: A Good Stock Cheap?

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Jun 29, 2026 · 11:22

<p><span>From &#8220;</span><strong><a href="https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/ollies-good-stuff-cheap"><span>Ollie&#8217;s: Good Stuff Cheap</span></a></strong><span>&#8221; (January 2022):</span></p><p><span>&#8220;Mark Butler rang the register when Ollie&#8217;s completed its first sale back in Mechanicsburg in July 1982, and he rang the opening bell in New York City 33 years later when the company went public </span><a href="https://www.pennlive.com/midstate/2015/07/ollies_bargain_outlet_ipo.html"><span>in July 2015</span></a><span>&#8230; This seems like a uniquely tough situation as it relates to &#8216;key man risk&#8217; (given the execution risk inherent to retail generally, and in the closeout business specifically).&#8221;</span></p><p><span>John Swygert, who became CEO upon Butler&#8217;s passing </span><a href="https://investors.ollies.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ollies-bargain-outlet-holdings-inc-appoints-john-swygert"><span>in late 2019</span></a><span>, remained in that role for six years. </span><a href="https://investors.ollies.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ollies-bargain-outlet-announces-appointment-eric-van-der-valk"><span>In February 2025</span></a><span>, Eric van der Valk, who was hired as the company&#8217;s COO in May 2021, replaced Swygert as CEO. (Before joining Ollie&#8217;s, </span><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/ericvandervalk/"><span>van der Valk</span></a><span> was the COO of </span><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/christmas-tree-shops-to-liquidate-all-stores-ea53da39?msockid=1c302391d69563690da33083d70562fb"><span>Christmas Tree Shops</span></a><span>.)</span></p><p><span>While we&#8217;re less than 18 months into van der Valk&#8217;s tenure, Mr. Market&#8217;s assessment of Ollie&#8217;s future has meaningfully worsened of late: OLLI, which traded at ~$133 per share at the end of 2024, closed on Friday afternoon at ~$72 per share (it&#8217;s back to price levels that were first reached in 2018).</span></p><p>This performance seems somewhat at odds with the financial results. </p>
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