Disregard Private Credit Liquidity Tests. Acquire BLACKROCK. Long $BLK
This DD but also an open reply to u/DueDilligenceTrader and their post but also an option for those looking to take action rather than just read and discuss (are we r/WallStreetCasualTalks now?)
>[Private Credit Is Passing Its First Real Liquidity Test](https://nl.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1udef90/private_credit_is_passing_its_first_real/)
While I don't particularly agree or disagree with their content, DD, and/or particular post.
I will say:
1. They didn't clearly define a their thesis beyond their belief that there will be continued withdrawals from private credit investors.
2. They didn't post any of their own position.
3. They didn't even post a POTENTIAL TRADE. (I guess mods think that's ok because it's not DD but [discussion] flair. Good to know for the future....)
That's where I come in. I feel like that OP is the lamest type of doomer 🐻 who's even lamer than regular🌈🐻s because they are all talk but no walk. At least those 🌈🐻s try to short.
I however will give you what you guys the PLAY and the BETS:
**TL;DR I don't short since it's a loser's game. BULLS go long and win. I DCA and hold so I don't lose, but if you think asset prices go up then know BLK will too. Not saying you should YOLO but you're the degens. I'm just offering my BLK analysis.**
**TL;DR2 If you MUST be 🌈🐻 then at least run neutral hedged short: Long BLK + Short the PE/PC firm you believe is bad.**
Boring BLK DD and positions:
1. I've been long BLK since the 2021 meme stock saga with [GAMING RETAILER THAT CAN'T BE MENTIONED APPAREANTLY]. Back then folks were doing various things: going full ape, taking on a 2nd mortgage to YOLO into the top of ge-em-ee, some were shorting it, and making up tinfoil theories about how Blackrock was in bed with Citadel and Melvin so they should be shorted too. That's why I bought BLK then. Cause I knew it would be a W. The largest shareholder of the gaming retailer during the whole saga wasn't Redditors, monkeys/apes, Michael Burry, Ryan Cohen, or even Mr. GOAT u/roaringkitty because the largest holders were Vanguard, Blackrock, and Statestreet.
2. I disregarded the drama and didn't want to go into that bloodbath. I just bought BLK because markets sold off and folks were overly negative on it (because of the anti-hedgies stuff). Then I bought it again in 2023 too and I'm buying BLK now. So I'm know my BLK shit.
3. BLK right now is facing downward pressure despite beating on sales/profits because of """"""""market sentiment"""""""" aka folks are bearish for not important shit like how they were in 2021 with ge-em-ee. Difference now is that folks think BLK is making less on crypto ETFs cause crypto is getting BTFO and folks feel BLK is at risk because they are exposed to "private credit".
4. But reality is BLK has **$14.04 TRILLION** in AUM and only **$676B in PC**. That's less that 5%. That's dumber than shorting Berkshire Hathaway because you're bearish on cash and they hold $400B of it because at least in that case BRK actually holds that cash rather than BLK who's PC risk is owned by it's PC investors. That would be like shorting BRK because you believe the cars they insure are going to decline in value.
5. Again it is **AUM** so that means it is not BLACKROCK who is at risk. They only hold the shit for you. Just like how they held the gaming retailer's shares for index folks during the ge-em-ee saga (very VERY likely they took advantage of that to make money under the table). So BLK is never at risk even if the PE, PC, leveraged semi/index products, or crypto went to $0 because it only means THEIR CLIENTS GET BLOWN OUT just like how YOU get BTFO when you buy IWM 0DTE calls, short IWM, or buy IWM bags. Robinhood and Blackrock don't win or lose shit. They just collect the fees. **If you believe inflation will increase and asset prices will go up then so will BLK as their AUM and management fees will go up.**
6. I'd say the $1000 mark is the support and next below it is the 2025 tariff and 2026 war lows. I'll buy around $1K and buy more once it goes under $999. BLK far from my largest position (it's not even my largest financial since AXP is) but it is something I'm familiar with. I believe it's been in heavy consolidation and could breakout should the bull market continue if you consider it's been in the $900 range since 2021.
7. [Positions](https://i.imgur.com/suXD0s8.png)
