**UPDATE:** All threads have been updated with working images again. Also to the morons who think this is AI: I wrote every word of this, and every thread posted below. Just because you zoomers lack the attention span to read books or learn to write doesn't mean we are all idiots. Also if you can't spot the tells of AI by now that's a serious skill issue.
# "Time in the market beats timing the market."
This is a phrase that is incredibly popular on subreddits like this one. On the surface, it is a completely bizarre and clearly false statement. Obviously someone who times the market will outperform someone who simply buys and holds an index. So what is going on here? Let's dig in to what this statement implies...
First, I think there are two interpretations of this common phrase. We will call them the "soft" interpretation, and the "hard" interpretation.
The soft interpretation of this phrase goes something like this:
It is certainly possible to time and outperform the market. But most people will not pull it off. They don't have the time, the inclination, the motivation, the dedication to really studying and becoming a successful trader. Most people who try to casually time the market are going to fail and underperform the market, because most of their decision making is emotional in origin. Therefore, while it is possible to outperform the market, the majority of people are better off simply investing in a cheap index fund as that will avoid common and costly mistakes.
Now, I actually agree with this "soft" interpretation of the statement. Most people are not going to be capable of beating the market, and so it is perfectly sensible that they would merely invest in an index fund until retirement.
However, what a large percentage of people mean by the phrase "time in the market beats timing the market" is actually the "hard" interpretation. Which sounds something more like this:
It's not actually POSSIBLE to time the market. No one has any idea where a local top in the market might be, or where a local bottom might be. No one has any idea when and where to buy and sell individual stocks to outperform the S&P500 index. If someone manages to outperform the market or time a local top or bottom, it was merely luck, and in the long run they will likely underperform buy and hold.
It is this interpretation of the "time in the market" phrase that I vehemently disagree with. And it is so obviously wrong in part because there are so many living examples of the statement being wrong.
# A "Random" Walk Down Wall Street
Part of the reasoning for the strong interpretation comes from the popular book "A Random Walk Down Wall Street." I've read this book, a couple times in fact. And it is one of the worst books ever written on the markets.
The basic premise here is that price action is essentially random. Nobody can predict it. All traders merely fall into a bell curve distribution. Those who have outperformed the market were merely lucky. They happened to be on the right end of the bell curve in terms of outcomes.
There are so many problems with this book and the ideas in it I could discuss it for days, but that's not the real point of this post. To keep it brief, I'll just say there is a very good reason he focused almost exclusively on fund managers for his analysis. There are obvious reasons why most fund managers do not outperform the market. If he would have focused on individual discretionary traders with a long term track record of success, his theories would have quickly fallen apart. I've posted hundreds of charts of breakout trades that on aggregate clearly predicted future price action. Not to mention there are actual technical trading funds like the Medallion Fund which significantly outperformed the market for decades.
There is obviously a statistical bell curve in short term trading outcomes. But at the same time anyone educated in statistics would understand the implications of the "Law of Large Numbers" and why I say short-term. A total beginner poker player could beat Phil Ivey in a single hand because of a good runout, but in the long run Phil would dominate due to his skill and experience. A fund manager may easily outperform the market in one year by chance. Maybe even a few years. But if someone is actively trading every single day, making thousands upon thousands of trades, and they consistently outperform the market, year after year, not even by a little bit but by a huge margin, the theory of a random and unpredictable market quickly breaks down.
The trader who first opened my eyes to what was possible, and the idea that trading was a viable full time career, was the Swedish swing trader Kristjan Qullamaggie. He achieved more than 200% return per year for several years in a row, turning thousands into tens of millions of dollars. I watched this person trade live every day for months, making hundreds of trades. I saw his entries wicking the price action in real time. This guy was the real deal, and what started me on the path to trading.
I found many others that disprove the "random" theory of price action. For example what are the odds that, in a purely random market, a person wins the US national trading championship not just once, but twice, with a 334% return? That is the story of Mark Minervini.
I never achieved quite these levels of success, but I did achieve multiple years with a greater than 100% return, simply by studying hard and following their methods. The income I made from compounding at these rates over several years was enough to pay off my house, pay off my cars, pay off my credit card and student loan debt, and still have a large trading account left by the end of it. I quit my job years ago to begin trading full time.
# The Original Trading Challenge
Five years ago I began a trading challenge to prove what was possible in the markets. The goal of this challenge was to start with a few thousands and compound it rapidly, while posting every single trade in real time and the explanation behind the process. The purpose of this challenge was to provide FREE educational content to aspiring traders, and to prove four points that are often in contention on subs like this one:
1. That it can be done,
2. That good trading is actually simple,
3. That technical analysis is real and effective,
4. That small accounts have a huge edge.
The challenge began with just $4,000. In less than two years I ran the account value up to $12,600.
This put the annualized return of the challenge account at over 100% per year.
This was also during the 2022 bear market. During this same period the S&P500 return was negative. To be clear, I was trading mostly bullish setups during a bear market, and returned over 100% annualized while the return of the S&P was negative. That alone was enough to prove the premise.
Unfortunately, this challenge was cut short when my account was inexplicably banned from reddit. I only discovered recently, years later, that my account has been unbanned and reinstated. I don't know the reasons for either the ban or the unban, but either way I am glad to have the account back after all these years.
The goal of the original trading challenge was full transparency. That was obviously ruined by the long term ban, as I can't go back and post years of trades. In addition my original broker, TD Ameritrade, was acquired and disbanded by Schwab, so my original accounts and profit graphs don't even exist anymore. And so, I decided the only option was to start all over from scratch.
# The new project: Roth vs SPY
This year was the biggest tax bill of my life. With a very large profit and all short-term capital gains, it was painfully expensive. Yes, all this time I have not been trading in a tax advantaged account. In some sense this was beneficial, as I was withdrawing regularly to cover bills, debts, and vacations. I never liked the idea of my money being tied up for decades in a retirement account, so I simply never opened one. However, I realized long term I would simply need to trade in a tax advantaged account to not give up massive amounts to the government for decades. So, despite my middle-age, I've finally opened a Roth IRA.
The goal of this challenge is very simple. Simulate someone opening a brand new Roth IRA account. Deposit the maximum amount each year (currently $7,500). Outperform SPY every single year, while posting every entry and exit and the charts and thought process that goes into the trades. Optimistically I would like to achieve 100% returns during bull markets, but so long as I consistently outperform the market I will be satisfied and have proved the premise again. Despite my reddit name this account will be trading purely shares, no options, as I believe this is an easier and more consistent approach to profitability.
Some trades from the past month: DELL which returned +92% from entry, BB which returned +70% from entry, ARM +88%, and BRUN +74%. These entries were made purely based on charts and simple technical analysis.
I opened the Roth IRA on 05/08/26 and began posting trades and returns in a dedicated subreddit. So far in the last month and a half I've returned +15% while SPY as of this morning has had a slightly negative return. If you are interested in following this challenge and learning about trading, feel free to join and submit any questions to the RothVsSPY subreddit. But before spamming basic questions I've covered a hundred times please first spend some time studying the content below. Thanks for reading.
(Edit: I guess some of these threads have deleted/broken images. I'll see if I can dig up the 5 year old charts and pictures for the trading guides at least, oof)
# Educational Resources and Past Content
# Current Challenge
[**Roth vs. SPY, Updated Performance**](https://www.reddit.com/r/RothVsSPY/comments/1t7d89h/roth_vs_spy_updated_performance/)
[**Live Roth Log, Part 1**](https://www.reddit.com/r/RothVsSPY/comments/1t7d4jv/live_roth_log_part_1/)
[**Charts and Screenshots, Part 1**](https://www.reddit.com/r/RothVsSPY/comments/1tpb7r2/charts_and_screenshots_part_1/)
# Trading Guides
[**Part 1: Breakout Swing Trading**](https://www.reddit.com/r/4Kto1M/comments/on3e00/trade_like_a_professional_breakout_swing_trading/)
[**Part 2: Episodic Pivot and Post-Earnings Announcement Drift**](https://www.reddit.com/r/4Kto1M/comments/q5yazn/trade_like_a_professional_part_2_episodic_pivots/)
[**Part 3: Timing Trends Using Simple Moving Averages**](https://www.reddit.com/r/4Kto1M/comments/yl120m/trading_guide_part_3_timing_trends_using_simple/)
# General Concepts
[**7 Key Traits of Successful Traders. The main takeaways from over 300+ interviews.**](https://www.reddit.com/r/4Kto1M/comments/ufjobs/7_key_traits_of_successful_traders_the_main/)
[**Demystifying Technical Analysis: Understanding Overhead Supply and Flag-Based Trading Patterns**](https://www.reddit.com/r/4Kto1M/comments/uyfp74/demystifying_technical_analysis_understanding/)
[**Breakout Scanner Settings**](https://www.reddit.com/r/4Kto1M/comments/o8w5bs/my_main_scanners/)
# Older Trading Content
[**Screenshots and Charts, Part 3**](https://www.reddit.com/r/4Kto1M/comments/ppgk1c/screenshots_and_charts_part_3/)
[**Screenshots and Charts, Part 4**](https://www.reddit.com/r/4Kto1M/comments/urouc7/screenshots_and_charts_part_4/)
[**Screenshots and Charts, Part 5**](https://www.reddit.com/r/4Kto1M/comments/vtltep/screenshots_and_charts_part_5/)
[**Open Discussion and Questions**](https://www.reddit.com/r/4Kto1M/comments/o8warw/open_discussion_and_questions/)
[**Live Trade Log, Part 1**](https://www.reddit.com/r/4Kto1M/comments/o9jv3b/live_trade_log/)
[**Live Trade Log, Part 2**](https://www.reddit.com/r/4Kto1M/comments/rtlcmt/live_trade_log_part_2/)
[**Live Trade Log, Part 3**](https://www.reddit.com/r/4Kto1M/comments/zzub8s/live_trade_log_part_3/)
# Off-Site Educational Links
Apparently these links not allowed. Check here for more: [**https://www.reddit.com/r/RothVsSPY/comments/1tp8f66/trading\_guides\_and\_educational\_resources/**](https://www.reddit.com/r/RothVsSPY/comments/1tp8f66/trading_guides_and_educational_resources/)