EVgo (EVGO): A Clear Lynch / Weschler (Berkshire) / Munger / Einhorn / Miller Value Play

TL/DR: EVgo represents a leveraged play in the EV / autonomous driving markets. The insanely high switching costs gives this company a moat that rivals that of enterprise SaaS in the 2000s and 2010s. In my opinion, their partnership and buildout strategy is the best in the business. With the new EV market having digested the federal tax rebate cut, states instituting their own incentives to replace it, new affordable EVs coming to market driving primary purchase market, and multiple catalysts driving adoption in the secondary market, the path to robust profitability is likely to occur faster than the market is predicting.

(At the end I write up what I feel each of these value investors would say about the company)

EVGO is an electric vehicle charging infrastructure company.

Everything you need to know:

Operating footprint and hardware:

1. \~1,200 fast charging stations across 47 states. \~40% of US population lives within 10 miles of an EVGO fast charging station
2. 60% of stations are ultra-fast 350kW chargers which can add 150 miles of charge in 10-12 minutes, depending on vehicle capability.
3. Aggressively onboarding Tesla-compatible NACS hardware through 2036 and 2027.

Partnerships:

1. Major ongoing rollout at high-traffic Kroger locations
2. Meijer Stores: Major Midwest expansion rolling out \~480 fast-charging stations
3. Long-standing partnerships with WaWa, Whole Foods, and Simon Property Group
4. GM: Crown jewel, multi-year partnership to roll out 400 ultra-high-power stalls at premium locations in key states (California, Georgia, Florida, New York, Texas)
5. 3-way partnership with Pilot / Flying J, and GM to roll out stations throughout critical interstate corridors…infrastructure that is sorely lacking across most of the US, and is a critical factor in EV adoption. More interstate capacity means more people willing to adopt EV as primary vehicle.
6. Toyota partnership to build out fast charging network, as well as provide 1 year free charging for new bZ4X buyers.
7. Uber & Lyft: integrated into apps to provide discounted charging for drivers
8. Spinning up partnerships with autonomous fleet operators (like Waymo) for dedicated charging facilities in dense test-bed markets

Company Facts:

1. Top line has grown 45% YOY
2. 17 consecutive quarters of double-digit top line growth
3. Gross margin expansion from 14% - 39% from 2021 - 2026
4. On the cusp of EBITDA profitability and positive FCF (likely to be rerated when this happens)
5. 1,400 - 1,600 stall expansion essentially already fund through government credit facility and commercial credit facility. De-risks dilution risk. Still likely for more dilution, but not for stall buildout.
6. As the depreciation for these stalls roll off the financials and capex decreases, we will see the cash flow leverage this business will generate.

Catalysts:

1. \~1.5 million leased EVs roll of leases from 2026 - 2028, with these vehicles likely to sell into the secondary market.
2. Secondary market has a significant share of consumers in multi-family housing and / or street parking where home-based charging is not possible
3. Infrastructure buildout has double impact: more units for charging throughput and also increasing adoptions as consumers trust they can have reliable, fast charging whenever and wherever they need it.
4. Fleet / Autonomous / B2B customers / partners: High-mileage (meaning significant charging needs) increases stall utility, increasing operating leverage and directly increasing gross margin
5. In regards to fleet operations, EVGO is capturing significant market share early on.
6. EXTREMELY HIGH switching costs. Once installed this represents significant moat. I would argue that although this is not an asset-light operation…in the age of AI this is exactly like the rise of high switching costs, asset light, reliable ARR model that drove software to be significant compounders throughout 2000s and 2010s
7. EV market has bottomed, with cut to federal EV credits having been digested. EV sales have stabilized and begun to up-tic. Factoring in the used EV sales numbers (that just hit the highest quarterly level on record) it is clearly beginning to rise again.
8. Since the drop of the federal tax credit, many states have implemented their own credit or incentive in one form or another, supporting adoption.
9. Lower-cost EVs will (in combination with reader infrastructure driving charging trust with customers) will decrease barriers to adoption…along with the growth of the secondary market. Rivian R2, Volvo EX30 hitting the \~$40k market for middle-class / upper-middle class consumers. Chevy Bolt has been brought back, with some models hitting below <$30k. Redesigned Nissan Leaf is in $30k - $35k range and is..for lack of a better term…actually a little sexy.

Other entry level or middle class models:

Kia EV3
Hyundai Ioniq 5
Hyundai Kona Electric
Chevy Equinox EV

There are likely more my research didn’t turn up.

Point is…the more entry level models / used models purchased….the more likely is that person lives in housing that doesn’t afford the luxury of installing fast-charging at home…which means EVgo’s high-density strategy, along with key partnerships, will provide high utilization and high operating leverage.

Path to Profitability:

While the company is constantly innovating stall manufacturing process to lower COGS, the key here is kWh/day:

**(Throughout per stall) \* (margin per kWh) = (stall gross profit)**

Q4 2025 showed average daily throughput per stall stood at 292 kWh / day

Projections and operational leverage models show that average daily throughput of roughly \~330 - 350 kWh / day would move EVgo easily into profitability, with any efficiencies in manufacturing cost reduction / labor cost reduction directly hitting gross margin expansion. With throughput for installed units increasing drastically, and operational efficiencies growing, I feel this path will happen sooner than market predicts.

Peter Lynch: Fast-Grower with more than sufficient capitalization in an overlooked / misunderstood industry where the hype has died and scaled unit economics provides clear operational leverage.

Weschler (Berkshire): Trailing earnings are irrelevant. EVgo is locking in premium real estate in key local markets that would take competitors double the CapEx and 5 years to try and replicate. i.e. clear moat.

Einhorn: Market is shorting this stock / undervaluing this stock because it is pricing in a permanent decline in *new, luxury EV sales*. Structural reality is a boom and growing boom in used EV sales, with a significant portion of those sales going to customers in large metros with limited or no ability to charge at home.

Miller: Value isn't "low P/E". It is a massive disconnect between a company's present enterprise value and its future discounted cashflows.\~$600 million dollar market cap is mispricing a company with a CLEAR path to $500 million in EBITDA by 2030 and significant operating leverage for an asset-heavy company.

Munger: It is an intelligent speculation if buying it for the infrastructure and the cost it would take to rebuild it today, but it isn't a high-flying tech stock. Used EV sales growth + urban renters + fleet drivers / autonomous buildout = clear, structural "lollapalooza" effect... less psychologically and more structurally, with multiple trends and catalysts all moving in the same direction to a logical conclusion: more throughput. This also represents clear characteristics of a "tollbooth" effect. The state of US energy infrastructure means utilities and municipalities only have so many multi-megawatt pipelines they can allow to come out of the ground. EVgo locking in these pipelines in very dense metropolitan areas creates a moat that is very difficult for a Johnny-come-lately to replicate.