Etsy is a company continues to face slowing growth in its core marketplace as consumers pull back on discretionary spending and competition from platforms like Amazon, Temu, and Shopify merchants intensifies.
Gross merchandise sales have struggled to return to pandemic-era levels, while active buyer growth has largely stalled/ if not fallen. With revenue growth decelerating and investor expectations still assuming a meaningful reacceleration, any further weakness in consumer demand, seller engagement, or marketplace traffic could pressure both earnings estimates and valuation multiples. In that scenario, the downside risk may outweigh the company's near-term growth prospects.
Adding to this, their latest campaign of shop other Jeff's is just a joke. Their sellers have expressed extreme unhappiness with tools and support, and have left the platform in droves. Without meaningful investment in them, they are just chasing yield to buy back stock to issue more in executive compensation.
Price Target: $40 - SHORT 200,000 Shares
Chewy on other hand is a evergreen, continually growing and expanding margin business in the pet space. Creating many products of their own and at higher quality than cheaper Amazon foods, etc. I can imagine Chewy becoming an acquisition target at these Levels for Amazon to integrate buyer data and partnership for further economies of scale.
Price Target $33 - LONG 350,000 Shares
Of course- there's a much longer thesis on both of these plays; however, feel free to DM me with questions of Why.