Little $1,700 bet against SpaceX now that options are live.
​
17 total puts with September and December spreads.
​
General thought is that the stock could crash to $20 and still be worth more than Boeing and Lockheed Martin combined.
​
SpaceX is unprofitable, with an incredibly high price to sales ratio of 145x. Revenue is miniscule at \~$20 billion. Starlink is amazing in its own right, but rocketry is growing revenue slowly and AI is burning money.
​
For reference:
​
\- Lockheed Martin has a P/S ratio of \~1.6x
​
\- Boeing has a P/S ratio of \~1.9x
​
\- NVIDIA has a P/S ratio of \~20x
​
\- Meta has a P/S ratio of \~7x
​
\- Tesla has a P/S ratio of \~15x
​
SpaceX is insanely overvalued, an order of magnitude moreso than Tesla. The market just needs a shock to realize it.
​
Main catalysts are:
​
\- First earnings call (September 2nd)
​
\- 90-day insider lock-up expiration (September 10th)
​
\- Regulatory scrutiny over accounting and valuation metrics (shout-out Elizabeth Warren)
​
Further out ones include:
​
\- Anthropic IPO
​
\- OpenAI IPO
​
These two could funnel hype away, or pop the AI bubble. If the AI leg of SpaceX dies in the water, I could absolutely see valuation returning to a typical 200 to 400 billion (still massive for aerospace).
​
\- 180-day insider lock-up expiration (December 9th).
​
And of course any wild erratic actions from Elon could tank the stock.
​
TLDR:
​
Little short position of a cash-burning hardware business masquerading as a $2.86T tech monopoly.
​
The goal: profit from panic selling and multiple compression cycles as artificial scarcity ends as a result of closing lock-up periods and liquidity shifts to pure AI plays. And there's always a chance the AI bubble pops.
​
\*\*The Float Reality Check:\*\*
​
The stock is currently skyrocketing because the float is so small.
​
Today, the float is 5%, about 640 million shares.
​
\- In September, the float will skyrocket to 1.5 billion shares.
​
\- In December, the float will grow to 13 billion shares.
​
Fact is, the IPO was oversubscribed, and there are people willing to pay any price to own SpaceX. Demand for shares exceeded the supply of shares. I don't think that trend will continue past the September release, and certainly not past the December release.
​
We'll see how it plays out... The market can stay irrational, but it can't invent liquidity to absorb a 13 billion share flood.
​
Reality is going to strike hard, and insiders are going to want to diversify.
​
Manage your positions ruthlessly, everyone.
​
\* It is worth mentioning index fund risk - billions of dollars WILL funnel into the stock soon.
​
However, I believe active fund managers are currently buying shares to sell to the index funds when they push the market up. Arbitrage.
​
Institutional frontrunners will leave afterwards, in my opinion. In August I believe there will be a severe lack of demand as a result, and the lock-up release in September will showcase that in full force.
