The U.S. and Iran announced a preliminary framework to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil dropped to around $ 83, and markets started cheering like the worst scenario had already disappeared. But here is the problem: the deal is not fully completed yet.
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The formal signing is still expected on Friday in Switzerland, and key details remain unclear: how exactly Hormuz will reopen? whether transit will be fully free? what happens after the first phase of the truce? what happens with Iran’s nuclear program?
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That’s why, in my opinion, the best move now is patience. Wait for the deal to actually be signed before doing any big stock shopping. 📊 Market breadth is improving. This is the healthy part. Among the S&P 500 38 companies posted new 52-week highs today and only 3 new lows. A month ago, the rally looked much more concentrated around Big Tech. Now we have more winners. Not only Nvidia or Micron. Not only AI. Not only the usual “VIP table”. That matters because a broader market rally is usually stronger than a rally carried by only a few giants. Great day for my portfolio. Great day for tech. Great day for risk appetite. But I don’t want to confuse relief with certainty. The market is buying the peace scenario before the deal is fully done. That can work. But it also means expectations are now higher.
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