I buy a certain amount of stocks every month into a broad index fund. For me, this is the easiest way to invest and I know it’s impossible to time the market.
However, I feel it’s hard to justify staying in the market right now. Are the risks of the oil shock correctly priced into the current prices? You would assume so, but a lot is pointing towards some sort of shock down the road (1-12 months from now). And if it does happen, it looks to be quite bad. It is not possible to time the market, but if you can see a meteor coming at you and there’s a medium-high risk it will hit you, why not play it safe?
Its hard to imagine that the market will increase 10-20% the resting the year even if war ends right now. But it’s not hard to imagine it falling at least that much if it continues. So as I see it, I’m risking missing out on 1-5% gains rest of the year in order to hedge against a potential 20-30% loss.
Am I being an idiot trying to time the market, even tho I shouldn’t?