Am I crazy or is there underappreciated risk of AAPL re-rating significantly downward?

Right now Apple trades at a roughly 37 trailing PE and has generally been growing topline in the single digits the last few years. Q12026 and Q42025 were strong quarters that bucked that trend with growth in the teens, but I think the back half of this year we are likely to see things normalize downward. When that happens, does this stock still deserve to trade at such a premium?

Upcoming Q4 on hardware will be especially tough for them for a few reasons:

1. It's a tough hardware comp cycle. Consumers don't need to buy a phone or computer every year and good cycles like the one Apple had last year means there are potentially fewer buyers this time around.

2. They have significant cost challenges. RAM and Storage prices are just going through the roof due to the AI super cycle. This affects BOM across their entire hardware lineup and, outside mac-mini, Apple isn't particularly levered to selling hardware that is in demand due to AI. Future phones and computers will likely be sold at a lower margin than previously.

3. Changing iPhone Release cycles will be a headwind to topline. Apple is widely rumored to delay the base iPhone 18 release to 2027, releasing only the Pro and their foldable this year. This will create hardware drag on revenue as consumers delay purchase. Yes, you may get mix-shift upward to the Pro and foldable, but I think this strategy is riskier than people realize. My mental model is that being able to advertise the base price got a lot of folks in the market for buying devices and once they started shopping they later upgraded to Pro models. Only going forward with the top end devices this year at likely even more elevated prices will potentially narrow their funnel.

4. Broad macro inflation could begin to drag discretionary spend. Durable goods like phones and laptops have increasingly lengthy replacement cycles. Just like with autos, people could hold off on purchases here as budgets get stretched and prices increase. And with the new phones having the same RAM (at a higher price) there is likely less reason to upgrade hardware this cycle. It will take some serious Apple marketing magic to get people to upgrade before they have to.

I'm curious about peoples thoughts. It just feels very expensive given they don't benefit as much from AI as other players and have a ton of headwinds in their core business that the new CEO will have to navigate. My conspiracy theory is that Tim knows tough times are ahead, which is why he's taking a back seat now to protect his legacy.