Everyone around me is rotating out of AI into dividend stocks. That means we haven't even started.
Resposting with positions:
The last two weeks I've seen more "AI bubble" posts, YouTube videos, and FinTwit threads than the past six months combined. Traders in my circle are rotating back into dividend stocks and industrials. Boomer portfolios are suddenly cool again.
And I'm sitting here like: this is it. This is the signal.
Let me explain why this is the most bullish thing I've seen in years.
Bubbles don't burst when everyone's nervous. They burst when every taxi driver, barber, and broke college student is leveraged long on the theme. We are nowhere near that. I don't know a single person IRL, young or old, who actually holds AI infrastructure names in their brokerage account. Not one. (not including indices, i'm looking at awareness not money)
The buildout hasn't even happened yet. Data centers, power grids, cooling infrastructure, chip supply chains, we're still literally pouring concrete. The capex cycle that powers the AI supercycle is in its first or second inning. Companies haven't deployed AI at scale. Most Fortune 500 workflows are still running on Excel and email.
Real adoption is sub-single-digit penetration. Ask any mid-size business owner if AI has meaningfully changed their operations. The answer is almost universally no. That's not a bubble popping. That's a technology that hasn't arrived yet.
The internet parallel is instructive. In 1997 people were calling the internet a bubble. They were wrong, but only by about three years and 400%. The actual bubble came when retail went all-in and valuations completely disconnected from any buildout reality. We don't have retail. We barely have institutional conviction at scale.
The rotation back to "safety" is the contrarian signal. When smart money gets cautious on a structural theme this early, it typically means one thing: the pain trade is up, not down.
I'm not saying there won't be volatility. I'm saying the people calling the top haven't even seen the beginning.
POSITIONS: MU 12 shares, MRVL 39 shares, SNDK 2 shares. Planning to add GOOGL. Rest of the portfolio is in the same thesis. Long and not moving.