Here is what can still fail the SLS trial when success seems "guaranteed"
Since SLS has a market cap of **1.7 billion**, I'm allowing myself to show you my thoughts on it. I'm a university professor in biomedicine, suggesting that I have a rough idea of what I'm talking about.
Even if I'm considered **crazy** for being here, please keep in mind that you are **retarded**, which makes us **equal**.
Let's start with the enrollment data. There are a few official reports based on which we can have an educated guess about when the patients joined the trial. We know it started slowly with only 20ish patients enrolled in the first year and a half (February 2021 - November 2022). And we officially know that on November 2023 there were 100 patients enrolled and that in April 2024 all 126 patients were enrolled. This provides us with the following enrolment graph:
https://preview.redd.it/abmwortnnu4h1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a0ed6d6879124b8c43e9beb25b432fd6656060a
Following up on this, you clearly see that the median time per patient in the trial is approx. 36 months. If we go for a simple decay model (unrealistic) the SLS trial is a guaranteed huge success and most of the numbers you see in other posts consider such simple models.
BTW, if the results were so good, the trial would have been stopped at the interim data report, which it wasn't.
So to do it more realistically, using the known events I constrained a Weibull model to fit to them and used it to predict a mOS of 20.3 months for the population in the trial. I know this doesn't sound like the high numbers that you've normally seen in posts about SLS, but please keep in mind that if many events occur quickly, then the mOS drops a lot even when the trial is prolonged due to a long-term survival for part of the population.
https://preview.redd.it/4unmwwqnnu4h1.png?width=1290&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ec6791f01f28ddf3d0f71ba7541fd4ccb526a80
Now here comes the million-dollar question - at what mOS of BAT is the trial successful? And here is your result - if BAT is lower than 16.2 months, then it will be a success...
https://preview.redd.it/a3drtrtnnu4h1.png?width=1502&format=png&auto=webp&s=798846bfea2aecf153692d2135c9c81e6b080532
Here my opinion (not an advice for you): Since even for younger populations (specifically AML second complete remission) this is a quite high BAT mOS, I would assume there is 80% chance of a success, 15% for a narrow miss, and 5% chance for a complete failure. So if someone tells you that it is guaranteed money, tell them to fuck off. However, even if the trial fails narrowly, based on the low side effects the GPS therapy can still possibly get a regulatory approval for some applications, making the current valuation of SLS justified.
TLDR: After conservative modeling I expect that the SLS trial will likely become a success, but **it is not at all mathematically guaranteed**.
My position (1799 shares):
https://preview.redd.it/89b5cqtnnu4h1.jpg?width=1051&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26ffae9085284d2966bcf0e86c644b7e493f346e