Modeled META out tonight cuz I like accounting and I always do my dd after I bought in - and I think it’s worth $5 Trillion (Target Price of $2014.50)
Key assumptions (apart from management guidance on CAPEX, topline, and Reality Labs): FOA keeps growing in the mid-20% range, RL reaches breakeven by 2027/2028 and then accelerates into 2030, and CAPEX continues ramping into 2027 before slowing down. This is where you see the explosion in FCF. Using a base case 15x exit multiple, I get to an intrinsic value of roughly a $5 trillion market cap.
And this isn’t counting the new subscription model (which is purely accretive) or leasing of data centers (250 billion run way) So these are my “margin of safety “
Position:
30k in stocks
12k in 2028 LEAPS