Bear points -------------------------
\*- Schiller PE for stocks generally is at 42. It was at 43 for around a year in 1999 and 2000 - the highest plateau level of expensive ever.
\*- Consumer confidence/sentiment is highly political and less of a tell. However, it is a leading indicator and at its lowest point. It is at 45 and this is significantly lower than year 2008 when it was around 60.
\*- Copper went over $6.30 per pound, and two years ago it was at $4 a pound. Much copper in chips and therefore AI data centers
\*- Technology centric layoffs exceeding 1000 people recently are Wix, Meta, Intuit, Cisco, \[ [layoffs.fyi](http://layoffs.fyi) \]
\*- 1973 and 1974's oil supply chain is not like it is today. However, layoffs ramped up with the rise in oil prices. As we all know, oil is >$90 / barrel for over a month and so credit card and other consumer debt will continue to rise.
\*- End of student loan forgiveness has influenced credit delinquent by 120 days (May 2026 report) to more than 2x what it was in 2023, though half what it was in 2008, at around 1% and all consumer credit >30 days late a little under 5%. In 2008 it was 12% and 2023 it was around 2.5%
\*- bond investors don't have to listen to the Fed's rate about whether to buy or not. If they don't like that the USA's debt exceeded 100% of GDP, and it has, they can simply chose not to buy and the rate will go well above anything the Fed has set. Often termed "bond vigilante" movements.
\*- Iran's regime is similar to the last. In oppressive regimes it has been shown repeatedly that when the government goes down due to citizens losing their fear, it is a bad scene for those who were recently on top. Everyone in their family is murdered, jailed, or forced to flee the country. Just yesterday an Iranian fast boat was back laying mines again. These latest governors can't show weakness to their people. They can't give in on nuclear enrichment nor cave if the USA blows up their bridges. Any rebel confidence increase from a dictator showing weakness (giving something to the USA as a win) and they are all dead along with those they love and they know it.
Bull stampede points ----------------
\*- Small companies are reporting that agentic AI can make then produce code 20x faster. I use regular AI and it helps with code syntax for sure and is faster than having to go to a book. Productivity gains are part of what justify stock gains.
\*- Tax return money is coming into the stock market; this is the season for it.
\*- Corporations with the right offerings are seeing big billions in profits.
\*- Companies are getting a few tens of billions in tariffs returned, this is very recent.
\*- Initial jobless claims hasn't moved from the 200,000 to 240,000 range per month. It has been in this range since 2022.
\*- Ebola and Hantavirus Andes are deadly as you know, but don't spread like COVID.
\*- Trump makes statements supportive of something the market wants when he sees the red down arrow. But how long are these believed?
I can follow up with more sources if people have issues finding some of this econ, consumer, and other price data.
