Ubiquiti has been on a slow but silent run this year, with a modest run up of about 110% YTD, starting from around $400 and reaching up to nearly $1,100.
1) Low volume stock(\~100k average).
2) Extremely high ownership rate by management and employees (86% out of 96%).
3) Solid and sustainable track record of YoY revenue growth and income, typically always performs as expected or better than expected.
4) Sudden 50% spike in short float positions from about 8% to 12% that aren’t held for long.
TE dipped 50% from $8 to $4 off of geopolitical noise and bounced back within the month, earning me a 2.5x, and now I’m hoping to do the same with UI.
Dropped from $1,100 down to $580 over a single trading week, which I suspect, may be because of the sudden spike in short float positions that opened around the same time.
Nothing has changed about Ubiquiti’s finances, guidance, and operating thesis, so I’m confident that they’ll eventually top back up to $900-$1,000 once the influx of shorts close out their positions.
Averaging 400k shares short and a sudden influx of 150k shares short for a total of 550k. If those extra 150k shorts are closing out as quickly as I suspect they are, then that’s more than double their daily average trading volume.
Anyway, you regards definitely don’t care about any of this and want to know my positions and my price target.
TL;DR: Ubiquiti went from $400 to $1,100 a share in a year and suddenly dipped 50% to $580 with no change in financials, guidance, or thesis. Sudden influx of short positions that have opened and are closing just as fast. Expecting Ubiquiti’s recovery back to $900-$1,000.
Positions:
$11,972 @ $598.60/share (20 shares) in ROTH IRA
$10,033 @ $668.92/share (15 shares) in Individual Brokerage.
Price Target: $900-$1,100 or the MOOOOON!