Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, do your own DD. I own a small long position in ONCO. I wanted to coronate my first WSB post with a true degenerates’ type of stock
Onconetix Inc (ONCO) is a small cap ($4.3 million) company with a high risk profile, but with a high reward potential due to a high amount of shorted shares, low amount of time to cover, and high short fee (545%). I’ll start off by bringing up the set up, and I’ll finish by talking about the company profile and it’s upcoming reverse merger.
\*\*1. Shorted Shares Situation:\*\* There have been some reports showing ONCO has an ultra low share float (between 580,000-654,000 shares on the public float). There are discrepancies on the total shares due to a recent 1:5 reverse split this past March. However, it seems that the share float is closer to 10 million now, and that ONCO has diluted since the reverse split. There was a Seeking Alpha article published on May 4th, showing 33.03% of ONCO shares being shorted. The days to cover is very low (0.05-1.0 day to cover). According to Interactive Brokers, the short fee rate is 545.32%. While ONCO does not have as crazy of a short ratio and ultra low share float like some places are reporting, the opportunity for a rally is still there. ONCO could be a prime candidate to make huge movement due to the high percentage of shorted shares (33%), low days to cover (1 day), and high short fee rate (545%).
\*\*2. ONCO Company Profile:\*\* ONCO is a biotech company whose main product is Proclarix, and in vitro diagnostic test for prostate cancer. Proclarix is approved for sale in the EU. Two recent peer-reviewed studies supported Proclarix’ use to reduce unnecessary prostate biopsies. Revenue from Proclarix is extremely low, only about $21,457 in 1q of 2026. This week ONCO announced a US multi-center validation study (called PRIME) with Labcorp to enroll up to 500 men across multiple ethnicities. Comparable tests to Proclarix (4Kscore, PHI, ExoDx, and SelectMDx) generate revenue in the low-to-mid tens of millions annually, which is meaningful but not blockbuster type numbers. The biggest risk for this company is their financial profile. As of May 11th, ONCO has $4.1 million dollars cash, and their cash burn in 1q 2026 was $2.1 million. They will need to raise capital in the relatively near future (few months), not just to run the business, but to execute their deal with Realbotix.
\*\*3. Realbotix (XBOTF) Acquisition:\*\* The biggest catalyst for ONCO is their definitive agreement to acquire Realbotix, which was announced in February. Realbotix makes AI powered humanoid robots, and they’re in very early stages of commercial launch. Their first unit was delivered in April to Ericsson, and there last update highlighted they plan to deliver 19 humanoid robots by the end of May. They are also moving to a new facility in Las Vegas by June 2026, that will support higher unit output. The deal between ONCO and XBOTF is supposed to close in the second half of 2026. When the deal is executed. This is an all-stock acquisition. Realbotix will own 75%–90% of the combined company, which is expected to trade on Nasdaq. Realbotix (XBOTF) currently has a market cap of about $50.5 million. As a reminder, ONCO is trading at a $4.3 million market cap ($0.38 a share), so it is valued less than 10% of Realbotix’ current market cap. It is estimated that ONCO will need $12.5 million minimum net cash threshold, plus other conditions (committed equity line, conversion/amendment of existing securities). I only way I can see ONCO raising capital without dilution or loans would be to sell Proclarix, which could be a possibility. However, ONCO doesn’t have good leverage in a deal, considering their financial situation. ONCO has not mentioned selling Proclarix, so this is pure speculation.
Of the companies I’ve written DD reports here on Reddit so far, this is by far the highest risk stock. The financials do not look good for ONCO, which is why I say this is a degenerates stock and certainly a gamble. However, ONCO being valued at less than 10% of Realbotix’ $50.5 million market cap make me think ONCO is undervalued at this level. Since Realbotix will own 75-90% of shares after the deal, I think ONCO should currently be worth $5.05-$12.5 million market cap based on XBOTF market cap. That would be 20%-295% upside from its current value. The high level of shorted shares could cause ONCO stock to launch if a rally starts, but it would need to happen before more dilution comes, so time is of the essence.